Russian, Chinese, Militant, and Ideologically Extremist Messaging Effects on United States Favorability Perceptions in Central Asia

The objective our research has been to investigate variations in perceptions of the United States abroad, particularly in regions where the US government extends considerable resources in military cooperation and development assistance. We explore why perceptions of the US in some Muslim-majority countries are increasingly negative, despite the US governments considerable investment in bilateral and multilateral cooperation efforts. We explore the causal effects as well as the causal mechanisms behind Russian, Chinese, and ideologically extremist anti-American propaganda efforts. We mix survey analysis, focus groups, ethnographies, and field experiments. We leverage existing surveys we began with the State Departments Office of Opinion Research's large holdings of Central Asia surveys but have since moved to Gallups World Polls -- to develop a baseline of changing US favorability perceptions in Central Asia. The Gallup surveys allowed us to explore, albeit imperfectly, potential effects, patterns of association between variations in US favorability and suspected causal variables related to the media efforts of militant and ideologically extremist groups as well as to the soft power efforts of Russia and China. We are now conducting field research both focus groups and surveys to develop a clearer sense of the causal mechanisms driving US favorability perceptions in Central Asia.