An Open-Source Method for Assessing National Scientific and Technological Standing: With Applications to Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning

In the context of what the 2018 National Defense Strategy describes as "the re-emergence of long-term, strategic competition between nations" understanding the scientific and technological position of the United States relative to other nation-states is increasingly important (U.S. Department of Defense [DoD], 2018, p. 2). The RAND Corporation was asked to develop open-source methodological approaches for determining national standing within the science and technology (S and T) fields. Understanding the possible evolution of emerging technologies will inform DoD and Intelligence Community officials' decisionmaking on actions to take. As technologies evolve, these officials will make decisions about the implications of those technologies for defensive and offensive missions, investments in research and development (R and D), personnel, procurement, foreign material acquisition, and additional information collection. This report is designed to provide analysts and decisionmakers with a quick-turn and open-source methodology for assessing national scientific and technological standing for a given field. The sponsoring organization is DoD, and the sponsoring office seeks to understand the level and trajectory of output and capacity for various emerging technologies in major powers and potential adversaries.