An Analysis of Progress Curve Conceptual Advances and Progress Curve Uses, Since 1956

The progress curve concept is traced in historical developments through 1956. The paper then concentrates on extensions of concepts through review and evaluation of articles and reports. Non-linearity is discussed, as is capital-intensive production and new estimating relationships. Innovations in its use are examined. These include nonhomogeneous production, value engineering, second source procurements, and optimal lot size. Present uses of the curve, factors in its make-up, and misuse of the concept are discussed. While parts of the overall 'learning' effect can be optimized and/or quantified, qualitative factors still exist. A quantitative-qualitative view of the progress curve is therefore recommended.