Phases of a Crisis

A turbulent international system is likely to spawn, with increasing frequency, international crises. But the very causes of the systems turbulence render forecasting--which actors are most likely to be involved over what issues and under what circumstances--virtually an impossible task. There is, however, some theoretical justification to expect that while forecasting who, what, where and when may be extremely difficult to predict, it is possible to forecast the likelihood that a given dispute will escalate into a crisis. This is conceivable because conflicts, including crises, go through identifiable phases or stages of development. The expectation is that however short the period or ambiguous the events, a crisis has a buildup phase, a confrontation period and a letdown, or to use McClellands term, an abatement period. An empirical data base of the differential aspects of these stages, conceived in this study as differential interaction sequences, would contribute substantially to forecasting the likelihood that a given threat situation will evolve into a full-blown crisis.