Cooperation and Dependence in Belarus-Russia Relations

In this report, we consider the evolution of the Belarus-Russia bilateral relationship from the early 2000s through 2023 to identify trends, areas of convergence and divergence, and security implications for Europe. The relationship between Belarus and Russia is unique and complex. At first glance, their similarities are numerous. Their ties are based on a shared history and language, a deep cultural affinity, legal agreements that codify a strategic partnership, intertwined economies, and shared threat perceptions of the West in general and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in particular. The two governments are led by highly personalist regimes that have decades of experience managing the partnership and share a similar and nostalgic view of the Soviet Union. There is a great deal of convergence across many policies. However, this relationship is not one between equals, nor is it entirely harmonious; several areas of friction remain unresolved. For many years, Belarus has attempted to carve out space for its own sovereignty and independent choices through a policy of what we refer to as balancing Russian pressure with engagement with other countries. Since 2020, however, Belarus's ability to act autonomously has shrunk dramatically. The watershed year in the relationship was 2020, when Belarus's ability to offset Russian demands diminished. Through a combination of violent government crackdowns on protests that year, alarming its neighbors via a migrant crisis in 2021, and allowing its territory to be used to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Belarus has found itself increasingly isolated and unable to push back on most Russian requests. For Belarus's neighbors, managing the relationship with Minsk is now a challenge as ties (and mutual dependence) between Minsk and Moscow grow stronger.