DATAWorks 2022: A New Method for Planning Full-Up System-Level (FUSL) Live Fire Tests

Planning Full-Up System-Level (FUSL) Live Fire tests is a complex process that has historically relied solely on subject matter expertise. In particular, there is no established method to determine the appropriate number of FUSL tests necessary for a given program. We developed a novel method that is analogous to the Design of Experiments process that is used to determine the scope of Operational Test events. Our proposed methodology first requires subject matter experts (SMEs) to define all potential FUSL shots. For each potential shot, SMEs estimate the severity of that shot, the uncertainty of that severity estimate, and the similarity of that shot to all other potential shots. We developed a numerical optimization algorithm that uses the SME inputs to generate a prioritized list of FUSL events and a corresponding plot of the total information gained with each successive shot. Together, these outputs can help analysts determine the adequate number of FUSL tests for a given program. We illustrate this process with an example on a notional ground vehicle. Future work is necessary prior to implementation on a program of record.