Enhancing Security in a Changing Arctic

This report examines potential issues related to U.S. access in the Arctic region, particularly in comparison with Russian and Chinese access, and was sponsored by the U.S. Coast Guard (USCG). We find in general that additional investments in capacity for presence in the Arctic region will enhance homeland security in the Far North. These security transitions, among others, are all good reasons to revisit the question of whether the United States faces an Arctic security gap. Research on Arctic security that my RAND colleagues and I have conducted over recent years suggests that there is no immediate, imminent security threat to the United States stemming from the Arctic. However, we have identified several risks that could ultimately lead to a future gap in security if U.S. access to and presence in the region do not improve to account for some of the key transitions that I have outlined above. The main risks that we identified are as follows: 1. declining populations across much of the Arctic region 2. limited readiness by the United States to fulfill responsibilities across all plausible contingency scenarios in the Arctic (e.g., for search and rescue [SAR] missions) 3. loss of life, property, economic potential, and environmental integrity due to a lack of readiness 4. limited U.S. ability to operate with (and rely on) partners 5. loss of opportunities to counter and diplomatically engage (when tenable) with Russia 6. possibility of the accidental escalation of tensions between Russia and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) 7. perception of U.S. absence and a security void, inviting more Chinese or another country's presence 8. possible growth in Chinese influence and ability to conduct covert activities.