Building U.S. Responses to Russia's Threats to Use Nonstrategic Nuclear Weapons: A Game Theoretic Analysis of Brinkmanship

Using a game theory approach, we examine U.S. tools and levers to respond to Russia's potential employment of nonstrategic nuclear weapons (NSNWs). We do so by first providing an overview of Russia's nuclear doctrine and capabilities, considering its discourse on nuclear escalation and declaratory policies relevant to the possible use of NSNWs. We then look at Russia's nuclear escalation through the lens of game theory, examining which potential levers for shifting decision making and outcomes exist in the game. Finally, we assess how a particularly relevant historical example, the Kargil War, sheds light on possible U.S. responses for avoiding escalation without conceding to adversary demands.