Escalation in the War in Ukraine: Lessons Learned and Risks for the Future

reportActive / Technical Report | Accesssion Number: AD1211982 | DOI: 10.7249/RRA2807-1 | Open PDF

Abstract:

Despite the devastating losses experienced by the Russian military and both the Ukrainian military and civilian population following Russia's February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, both sides have refrained from pursuing several escalatory options to date. Although Russia has escalated its attacks on Ukraine in several ways, including strikes against critical infrastructure and the civilian population, it has refrained from other options notable given the high stakes for the Kremlin and the potential capabilities Russia could bring to bear in the conflict. However, if Russian territorial, personnel, and materiel losses continue to mount without improvements on the battlefield, President Vladimir Putin will face an unpalatable set of choices. In the extreme, the conflict offers plausible scenarios for Russia to become the first state to use nuclear weapons in warfare since 1945.

Author(s):
Frederick, Bryan ; Cozad, Mark ; Stark, Alexandra
Author Organization(s):
RAND CORP SANTA MONICA CA
Funding Organization(s):
DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE WASHINGTON DC, WASHINGTON, DC
Document Type:
Technical Report/Research Report
Publication Date:
2023 Oct 02
Pagination:
108

Security Markings

DOCUMENT & CONTEXTUAL SUMMARY

Distribution Code:
A - Approved For Public Release
Distribution Statement: Public Release.
Copyright: Not Copyrighted

RECORD

Collection: TRECMS
Subject Terms
Descriptor(s):
international organizations, international relations, aircrafts, employment, governments, prompt global strike, strategic weapons, treaties, warfare, national security, political science, war colleges, air defense, chemical weapons, foreign policy, foreign relations, military aircraft
Keyword(s):
Geopolitical Strategic Competition
Subject Categories:
Behavioral and Social Sciences
Modernization Areas:
Cyber; Fully Networked C3
Communities of Interest:
; ; ; ; ; ;
Descriptor(s):
international organizations, governments, prompt global strike, strategic weapons, treaties, warfare, air defense, chemical weapons, motivation, united states, employment, international relations, nato, unmanned aerial systems, war colleges, air power, chemical warfare agents
Creation Date:
2023 Oct 04
Update Date:
2023 Dec 05