Decisions in the Dark: A Framework for Decision-Making in Unfamiliar Situations

This thesis seeks to understand an appropriate decision-making framework for the fire service to use in unfamiliar situations. Firefighters and emergency responders rely on pattern recognition when they are presented with familiar situations; however, relying on such intuition can result in costly time delays. A case study method was used to evaluate decision-making during disasters in the fire service and the mining industry. The fire service cases include the 1949 Mann Gulch Fire and the fire service response to the 9/11 attack on the World Trade Center. The mining case studies, both of which occurred in 2010, include the Deepwater Horizon oil spill and the Chilean mine collapse. The fire service cases were assessed to determine which decision-making tools we reutilized and what additional factors influenced positive and negative outcomes throughout the events. The mining cases were evaluated to understand organizational structures and response systems. This thesis recommends that fire service leaders utilize expanded interdisciplinary teams to creatively seek alternative solutions when addressing unfamiliar problems. Using such teams will require leaders to expand response frameworks and alter familiar patterns of response to include outside agencies and nontraditional emergency responders. Finally, leaders should deliberately encourage open communication about successes and failures to encourage collaboration and innovation throughout the response.