Implications of a Coercive Quarantine of Taiwan by the People's Republic of China

Chinas coercive options for Taiwan range from routine violations of Taiwans declared Air Defense Identification Zone to a full-scale invasion. Within the spectrum are efforts to isolate Taiwan to prevent it from sending exports or receiving imports. Typically, this would be a blockade, defined as a belligerent operation to prevent vessels and/or aircraft of all nations, enemy and neutral, from entering or exiting specified ports, airports, or coastal areas belonging to, occupied by, or under the control of an enemy nation.1 However, because the Peoples Republic of China (PRC) does not view the government on Taiwan as sovereign and thus rejects the idea that a state of war could exist, blockade is not the correct term. Therefore, in this report, we examine how China might implement a quarantine of Taiwan. Unlike in a blockade scenario, Chinas goals for the quarantine would not be to completely cut off food and supplies to Taiwan, but rather to demonstrate de facto sovereignty by controlling the air and maritime space around the island, as well as which cargo deliveries, ships, aircraft, and people have access to Taiwan.2