Emergent Technology in the Competition Space: Cryptoruble and U.S. National Security

reportActive / Technical Report | Accesssion Number: AD1158251 | Open PDF

Abstract:

In a global environment in which the economic tool of statecraft is as integral to national security as diplomacy, information, and military, Russia's proposed cryptoruble poses a unique threat. Like traditional cryptocurrencies, cryptoruble will used distributed ledger technology; unlike traditional cryptocurrencies, cryptoruble will not be anonymous and emissions will be centrally controlled and likely infinite. The question this thesis answers, "What ramifications does cryptoruble have for US national security?" yields three primary results. After comparing Russia's native cryptocurrency effort to case studies of Venezuela's and Iran's efforts, and looking to Russia's National Security Strategy and news around the launch. Result 1: Russia appears poised to use cryptoruble to circumvent US/Western economic sanctions. If other state or non-state actors accept it as payment, Russia may be able to obtain new energy technologies and/or cyber capabilities, or set up banking/financial institutions outside the US Dollar/SWIFT dominated system. Result 2: After reviewing relevant US strategies and analysis regarding the future of the global order, the US can approach cryptoruble proactively by exploiting its traceability to track currency flows and engage in deterrence in the competition space. Result 3: This thesis identifies a gap between the direction provided by the US National Security Strategy in broad brushstrokes and the more detailed guidance a National Economic Security Strategy could provide by focusing on the nexus of threats to economic and cyber security. If the US intends to respond to threats to its national security in a timely manner, it will still use sanctions as a useful tool, while adding additional cyber and strategy tools to its toolbox.

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