Modernizing the U.S. Nuclear Triad: The Rationale for a New Intercontinental Ballistic Missile

Since the late 1950s, the United States has fielded a Triad consisting of air-, sea-, and land-based nuclear delivery systems. After multiple decades of service, major components of all three legs are now nearing the end of their scheduled service lives. Several nuclear modernization programs are well underway, but the decision to replace the aging Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) with a new system, called the Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent (GBSD), has catalyzed a debate over the role of nuclear weapons in U.S. national security policy and the composition and costs of the U.S. nuclear arsenal. This Perspective presents an overview of the principal arguments publicly advanced for and against continuing the GBSD program of record. Intended to assist U.S. Air Force officials, it presents an overview of the role of the Triad in U.S. nuclear weapons policy, a survey of the current strategic landscape, and an outline of the major nuclear modernization programs of record, in addition to describing and assessing the major points of disagreement related to fielding a new ICBM. This research was conducted within RAND Project AIR FORCEs Strategy and Doctrine Program. This Perspective represents the views of the authors.