The Unambiguous Nature of Strategic Ambiguity in the Taiwan Strait: Inviting Miscalculation or Maximizing Diplomatic Flexibility?

In recent years, as the US-China relationship has trended from cooperation to great power competition, there have been increasing calls from China scholars and pundits for Washington to reassess its Taiwan policy of "strategic ambiguity." However, supporters of the status quo believe that the current conditions in the trilateral relationship do not warrant any significant policy change. Clearly, the opposing arguments for strategic clarity or strategic ambiguity in the Taiwan Strait represent two sides of the same deterrence coin. Yet, none of their arguments for or against strategic ambiguity are firmly rooted in any systematic research, demonstrating how their recommendations will achieve the strategic ends of American grand strategy. A systematic evaluation, however, finds that the wholesale abandonment of the current policy of strategic ambiguity will not strengthen America's ability to deter China from forcibly incorporating Taiwan under its rule and will limit flexibility critical to the execution of the diplomatic instrument of national power.