Commercial and Military Applications and Timelines for Quantum Technology

This report is one of a set of focused, short analyses that examine critical emerging technologies and provide perspective on their development around the world. The analyses cover quantum technology, technologies for enhancing human performance, semiconductor technology, the intersection of artificial intelligence and cybersecurity, deep fake generation and detection, and the use of patent data to assist in understanding global trends in emerging technologies. This report focuses on quantum technology. The short technology analyses draw from open sources to provide a snapshot in time of the status of the technology; its plausible evolution; and the thought leaders, firms, institutes, and countries that are working on it (with particular interest in the prospects of potential adversaries of the United States). These examinations of individual technologies also provide background information useful for examining patents and scientific articles for insights in how a technology may evolve, its implications, and who will lead in its evolution. They were developed quickly to respond to the sponsor's requests for rapid completion of focused, open-source literature reviews; by design, they do not address possible policy implications. The analysis of patent data is different from the other assessments in that it both demonstrates an analytical approach and applies it to two specific arenas: military technologies and semiconductors (included as an appendix to the brief semiconductor analysis). That analysis illustrates how patent data can provide insights into the evolution of technologies via the data associated with the patents inventors, their organizations, and their country. Together, the authors of the reports in this series attempt to foresee the implications of emerging technologies via different data sources in a systematic and transparent fashion.