Abstract on Future Air Force Vanguard Selection and Management Processes

In April 2019 the Air Force released its new 2030 Science and Technology Strategy. As part of that strategy, the Air Force recommends allocating at least 20% of its S and T budget to a transformational component intended to drive future force design, including a set of efforts called Vanguards - these are high-priority programs focused on developing and transitioning game-changing capabilities via prototyping and experimentation. While an initial process was in place to choose the first three Vanguard programs (Golden Horde, Navigation Technology Satellite-3, and Skyborg), the Air Force intends to implement a more formalized selection and management process to maximize the likelihood of successful Vanguard program execution and transition. The Department of the Air Force Scientific Advisory Board (SAB) study on "Future Air Force Vanguard Selection and Management Processes" focused on helping to define a sustained selection and management process for future Vanguards The study panel engaged with numerous Air Force organizations to understand goals and constraints of these high-profile programs. This included organizations directly involved in the current Vanguard projects, those that are involved in planning the selection of the next set of Vanguards, and stakeholders who are invested in the success of future Vanguards. The panel found a variety of views on the definition and metrics for successful Vanguard programs, but also found several consistent positive characteristics among the existing Vanguards. The panel identified common characteristics of successful prior DoD Vanguard-like constructs, such as Air Force Development Planning Initiatives and Joint Capability Technology Demonstrations (JCTDs), as well as best practices from traditional and non-traditional agile commercial organizations and Venture Capital companies. Based on this data, the SAB made the following recommendations.