Iranian Proxy Groups in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen: A Principal-Agent Comparative Analysis

The regional hegemonic aspirations of the Islamic Republic of Iran (hereafter labeled Iran) are changing the balance of power across the Middle East, especially in gray zone conflicts - "activities by a state that are harmful to another state and are sometimes considered to be acts of war, but are not legally acts of war." Despite U.S.-led sanctions, recent regional trends have favored Iran, posing a significant threat to U.S. interests. Using proxy groups, Irans leaders in Tehran actively seek to keep regional conflicts in the gray zone thereby prolonging hostilities and giving Tehran the strategic advantage by making itself indispensable to subnational actors vying for local power and influence. While proxy-based strategies provide many benefits, they are also fraught with strategic pitfalls that can be exploited if proxy dynamics and local political conditions are well understood by adversaries.