The Analytics Quotient: Retooling Civil Affairs for the Future Operating Environment

Historically, military intelligence analysts and U.S. forces, frozen in their preferred strategy of attrition warfare, have undervalued civil information in conflicts against irregular threats. As operating environments grow more complex, uncertain, and population-centric, the roles of Civil Affairs Forces and civil information will become increasingly relevant. Unfortunately, the current analytical methods prescribed in Civil Affairs doctrine are inadequate for evaluating complex environments. They fail to provide supported commanders with the information required to make informed decisions. The purpose of this research is to determine how Civil Affairs Forces must retool their analytical capabilities to meet the demands of future operating environments. The answer lies in developing an organic Civil Affairs analytic capability suitable for employing data-driven approaches to gain actionable insights into uncertain operational environments, and subsequently, integrating those insights into sophisticated operational targeting frameworks and strategies designed to disrupt irregular threats. This research uses case studies of organizations, across a range of industries, that leveraged innovative data-driven approaches into disruptive competitive advantages. These organizations highlight the broad utility of the prescribed approaches and potential pathways for Civil Affairs Forces to pursue in creating an analytic capability that supports effective civil knowledge integration.