The TanKer Aerial Refueling Model for Analysis (KARMA)

Over the past few years, the U.S. Department of Defense and U.S. Air Force (USAF) have become increasingly concerned with countering an anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) strategy. The U.S. military as a global power must typically project power over long distances and operate from forward bases. Aerial refueling is a critical capability enabling USAF power projection and forward employment operations. Denying access and basing is likely to be a critical component of a potential adversarys strategy wishing to disrupt U.S. power projection. The tanKer Air Refueling Model for Analysis (KARMA) was developed as part of a RAND Project AIR FORCE project, sponsored by the Air Force Air Mobility Command, Strategic Plansand Programs (AF AMC/A5/8), to evaluate the capability of the tanker fleet to support combat operations in an A2/AD environment. KARMA enables an analyst to simulate the extent to which a tanker force can aerially refuel the combat aircraft in a denied environment. The primary assessment metric likely to be used is the sortie generation rate of all or particular aircraft types over any period of simulated time. The USAF Synthetic Theater Operations Research Model was used to generate the air tasking order (ATO) for the combat aircraft in a scenario and was used as an input to KARMA. The RAND Combat Operations in Denied Environments Theater Air Base Vulnerability Assessment Model was used to provide an estimate of air base damage as a result of missile attack and was also an input to KARMA. KARMA is a flexible, fast-running model, allowing users to explore a variety of scenarios, basing structures, concepts of operations, enemy attack patterns, and tanker aircraft capabilities.