Forecasting Navy Reserve Selected Reserve Annual Training Execution Rate

The Navy Reserve budgets for the annual training of officers and enlisted in the Selected Reserve, tracking end strength for both throughout the fiscal year. At the end of each year, it determines how many enlisted and officers completed their annual training. The Navy Reserve Forces Command then determines a participation rate for both based on the dollars expended, and calculates the average dollar rate for each annual training, per person. This project explores a model that tracks end strength fluctuations at the end of each month throughout the fiscal year and compares the fluctuations with annual training dollars executed at the same point in time to determine what the projected Selected Reserve participation rate should be at the end of the year. Projecting training costs throughout the year is critical because these budget decisions impact other aspects of the Navy Reserves personnel budget.