Forecasting Morphology and Dynamics of F-Layer Irregularities,

Data and analyses are at hand to forecast the morphology and dynamics of global F-layer irregularities. For the planners of systems which are impaired by the scattering characteristics of F-layer irregularities, forecasting the morphology allows them to evaluate the utility of operating systems and to plan means for integrating back-ups. For the active users forecasting the dynamics of changes in intensity and characteristics of the irregularities as a function of geophysical conditions allows for warning operators about impending problems. For the polar region the morphological parameter used as the principal forcing function for intensification of F-layer irregularities is the solar flux. Intense irregularities appear during high sunspot number years. For the auroral region the parameter used as forcing function is magnetic activity as shown by studies of radio stars, low altitude satellites and synchronous satellites. Increased solar flux plays a role both pushing the F-layer irregularity region equatorwards in latitude and increasing the quiet day intensity. For the sub-auroral region the magnetic activity during the injection phase of the magnetic storm plays a leading role. During the recovery phase of the magnetic storm the effect of the decay of ring current ions on the sub-auroral region is such that irregularities are formed of low intensity without auroral or magnetic activity.