Analysis of the Shortwave Cloud Forcing and Surface Shortwave Flux in the Meteorological and Oceanographic (METOC) Modeling and Prediction Systems

LONG TERM GOALS. The United States Navy is the Department of Defense s main source for standard meteorological and oceanographic METOC predictions. At the heart of these predictions are the short-to-medium range weather forecasts produced by the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System NOGAPS Hogan and Rosmond, 1991. Surface flux fields from NOGAPS forecasts are used as input to the oceanographic prediction systems. These systems include 1 the Thermodynamic Ocean Prediction System, 2 the Polar Ice Prediction System, and 3 the Third Generation Wave Model. Given the prominent role surface fluxes play in these systems, it is clear that their proper simulation by NOGAPS is vital. Presently, there are significant shortcomings in the NOGAPS simulation of the net surface shortwave flux long-term mean biases greater than 50-80 Wm-2 in many tropicalsubtropical areas, as well as other surface heat flux components similar size biases in the latent and net surface heat fluxes. The long term goal of this research is to determine the underlying causes for these shortcomings and help implement modifications for improvement in order to 1 enhance this model s physical representation of the atmosphere and extend the skill of its medium range weather predictions, and 2 improve the skill of the oceanographic and coupled prediction systems via the improved simulation and prediction of the surface energy budget.