Developing a Universal Navy Uniform Adoption Model for Use in Forecasting

The Navy Exchange Command NEXCOM Uniform Program Management Office UPMO is responsible for providing initial sales estimates to the Defense Logistics Agency DLA for new uniform programs, as a part of a Supply Request Package SRP. The SRP contains a fielding plan that projects sale quantities through the Navy exchange NEX outlets, Recruit Training Command Great Lakes, and the Reserve Component. UPMO also provides annual revisions to DLA that reflect changes to expected sales, due to policy changes. As the item manager for most uniform programs, the DLA relies on these sales forecasts provided by the UPMO. In turn, the NEXCOM sources these uniforms from the DLA for commercial sales through the NEXs. This project endeavors to develop an accurate sales forecasting model for use by the NEXCOM to support SRP development. Data analysis software will be used to identify relationships between uniform sales, time, manpower, and allowance data in order to build the model. Once chosen, the best candidate model will be validated against alternate sales data from a comparable uniform program. By using this model, the NEXCOM can provide more accurate procurement estimates to DLA, thereby reducing the risk of inventory shortage or excess inventory holding costs caused by overestimation.