Deterrence and the Future of U.S.-GCC Defense Cooperation: A Strategic Dialogue Event

Strategic dynamics in the Middle East are in flux. While conflict and terrorism have eroded stability across the region, a cold war between Iran and its Sunni Arab neighbors has worsened. The Gulf Cooperation Council GCC states in particular fear their Iranian neighbor s growing influence in the region. They see their security and Sunni dominion in general threatened by the ascendency of Iran and its Shiite allies. Added to this is the specter of a nuclear-armed Iran, which many in the Gulf feel will one day become a reality. The nuclear negotiations between Iran and the P51 have not lessened this anxiety. Instead, Gulf Arab states believe a deal rewards Iran for bad behavior and puts it on the road to an eventual nuclear weapons capability. Gulf states continue to view the United States as their primary defense partner and as the guarantor of security in the Persian Gulf. However, they question given current U.S. policies and the pivot to Asia whether defense ties with the United States will remain sufficient to deter Iran and counter its regional ambitions. That uncertainty has implications for the future of stability and nuclear proliferation in the region. If nuclear proliferation in the Gulf is to be prevented, the United States will need to have a clear view of its Gulf allies security concerns. To that end, CNA organized a Track 1.5 forum to encourage dialogue between the United States and its Gulf allies on these issues and to explore the broader questions of deterrence and assurance. The closed-door event brought together officials, scholars, and experts from the United States, the five GCC states Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, and Bahrain, Jordan, and Turkey to engage in an unofficial and not-forattribution discussion on strategic issues. The event was divided into three panels, each followed by group discussion.