Identifying Factors That Predict Promotion Time to E-4 and Re-Enlistment Eligibility for U.S. Marine Corps Field Radio Operators

We develop statistical models to identify the most influential entry-level attributes of a Marine recruit to predict two performance measures the Computed Tier Score and the time to achieve the rank of Corporal E-4 in the 0621 Field Radio Operator Military Occupational Specialty MOS. We use data collected from 2007 through 2014, on more than 1,100 Marines in the 0621 MOS to construct multivariate linear regression models to estimate Marines Computed Tier Score and time to achieve E-4 based on their individual personal and professional attributes. We find statistically significant relationships to exist between the entry-level attributes of a Marine recruit and the performance measures. The most influential predictor variables include the run time on the USMC Initial Skills Test IST, number of crunches on the IST, rifle score, the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery ASVAB General Technical GT score, ASVAB Clerical CL score, ASVAB General Science GS score, ASVAB Mathematics Knowledge MK score, ASVAB Paragraph Comprehension PC score, weight, and whether a Marine receives a weight waiver upon entrance into service. We recommend that new job performance measures be created for each high-density MOS in order to conduct further testing for MOS suitability.