Monsoon Disturbances Over Southeast and East Asia and the Adjacent Seas

The long-term goal is to study weather disturbances over the Southeast and East Asian monsoon region and its adjacent seas e.g., tropical western Pacific, Indian Ocean, South China Sea, Yellow Sea, etc. using Navy research and operational analysis and forecast models. The primary goal is to advance the understanding of the weather-producing systems in the region, in order to improve forecast capabilities. In the process we will assess the skill and characteristics of the models and the suitability of different physical parameterization schemes in representing and forecasting these disturbances, and find clues that may be useful for model improvement efforts. The objectives are 1 to study the structure and the dynamic and thermodynamic properties of the disturbances in the vicinity of the Southeast and East Asian monsoon region that stretches from Indian Ocean to the tropical western Pacific, including the South China Sea and Yellow Sea, which are of particular interest to naval operations and 2 to study the ability and sensitivity of Navy operational numerical models in analyzing and predicting these disturbances. The key questions to be answered are the development and evolution mechanisms of these disturbances and their interactions with the different stages of the large-scale monsoons in the atmosphere. For summer monsoon the focus is on the convective disturbances Mei-yu in China, Changma in Korea and Baiu in Japan that developed following the onset and reinforcement of the southwest monsoon in the South China Sea. For winter monsoon the focus is on the cold surge and weather disturbances in the vicinity of the South China Sea and the maritime continent. The current Navy operational model, COAMPS, has not been tested systematically in the tropical, monsoon environment.