Human Factors In the Joint Typhoon Warning Center Watch Floor

This study evaluates the task and support environments associated with the Joint Typhoon Warning Center JTWC watch floor and provides recommendations to improve forecast accuracy. The principal findings indicate that, at this time, factors in the task environment are very likely limiting forecast accuracy. In particular, system-induced practical and cognitive limits on the forecaster s repeatability, i.e., the ability to reproduce an identical forecast given identical information, limits forecast accuracy. Thus, forecasters performance and forecast accuracy could be enhanced by an information integration system with recommended features, by more precise standard operating procedures, and by training and feedback better matched to the task. Further studies are also recommended.