Assessing the Effectiveness of the International Counterproliferation Program

This report demonstrates how RANDs assessment framework, developed in previous RAND research, can be applied to combating Weapons of Mass Destruction WMD programs by illustrating its utility for the International Counterproliferation ICP Program. The study team was tasked with expanding on the RAND security cooperation assessment framework prepared for DTRA in 2009 to more fully develop an analytically sound and repeatable process for program assessment, as well as demonstrating how the assessment framework can be applied to the ICP Program. First, RANDs security cooperation assessment framework was tailored to allow for an assessment of the ICP Program. To ensure that we had the correct objectives, indicators, and questions for the assessment, we consulted ICP Program plans and after-action reports from past events. The team developed assessment indicators tied directly to ICP Program objectives. Second, we conducted focused discussions with key DTRA stakeholders to gain insights into the perceived value of the program from a U.S. perspective. Next, we conducted interviews with partner country officials to ensure that we obtained balanced data, informed by all stakeholders. Finally, we assessed the results, determined key findings across the three case studies Kosovo, Romania, and Georgia, and recommended ways to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of the ICP Program, based on our review of the reports, focused discussions, and case study work. RANDs assessment framework includes five key elements strategic guidance, programs, stakeholders, authorities including directives and instructions, and levels of assessment that are linked with a discussion of assessment indicators inputs, outputs, and outcomes.