The Inevitable War?

reportActive / Technical Report | Accession Number: ADA545223 | Open PDF

Abstract:

China and the United States have been competitors on a global scale since Deng Xiaoping changed Chinas trading policies in 1976. The policies resulted in increased tensions between the two nations over time. This monograph uses Commercial Liberalism and Power Transition Theory to describe conditions in two historical case studies that led to peace or war. These lessons are applied to todays relationship between China and the United States in order to extrapolate the trends that may lead to war between them. The United States and Britain 1865-1945 dyad show the peaceful transition between a great power and a dominant power. The United States and Japan 1853-1941 dyad show the conditions when two great powers go to war. Both case studies involve a significant trading relationship between the dyads. The current conditions with China and the United States show that the relationship between the two nations will continue to be peaceful because of the decrease in trade share between them. Additionally, China is satisfied because they continue to derive acceptable benefits from the global order. A significant, short-term growth in their military power projection systems would be an indicator they are not satisfied with the global order.

Author(s):
Showalter, Richard K.
Author Organization(s):
ARMY COMMAND AND GENERAL STAFF COLL FORT LEAVENWORTH KS SCHOOL OF ADVANCED MILITARY STUDIES
Descriptive Note:
monograph
Supplementary Note:
The original document contains color images. DOI: 10.21236/ADA545223
Pagination:
0083

Security Markings

DOCUMENT & CONTEXTUAL SUMMARY

Distribution:
Approved For Public Release
Distribution Statement:
Approved For Public Release; Distribution Is Unlimited.

RECORD

Collection: TR
Identifying Numbers
Report Number(s):
ATZL-SWV
Monitor Series:
USACGSC
 Subject Terms
Joint Capability Areas:
JCA_8_Building Partnerships; JCA_8.1_Communicate; JCA_8.1.3_Influence Adversary and Competitor Audiences; JCA_5_Command and Control; JCA_1_Force Support; JCA_1.2_Force Preparation; JCA_8.1.1_Inform Domestic and Foreign Audiences; JCA_2.4.1_Integration; JCA_5.5_Direct; JCA_1.2.3_Educating; JCA_5.5.1_Communicate Intent and Guidance; JCA_2.4.4_Prediction; JCA_2.4.5_Product Generation; JCA_2.4.2_Evaluation; JCA_2.4.3_Interpretation; JCA_2_Battlespace Awareness; JCA_2.4_Analysis Prediction and Production; JCA_1.4_Force Support; JCA_5.3_Planning; JCA_1.4.1_Force Health Protection; JCA_6.4.1_Secure Information Exchange
Modernization Areas:
Space
Communities of Interest:
Energy and Power Technologies
Descriptor(s):
*INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, *MILITARY FORCES(FOREIGN), *FOREIGN POLICY, CASE STUDIES, CHINA, HISTORY, MILITARY APPLICATIONS, POWER SUPPLIES, TRANSITIONS, JAPAN, GROWTH(GENERAL), LEADERSHIP, SCALE
Field(s)/Group(s):
Government and Political Science, Military Forces and Organizations
Keyword(s):
POWER TRANSITION THEORY, COMMERCIAL LIBERALISM
Report Date:
2011 May 20
Creation Date:
2011 Jul 27