Iranian Ballistic Missile Threat and a Phased, Adaptive Approach for Missile Defense in Europe: Perceptions, Policies and Scenarios

The purpose of this advanced research project is to analyze the threat to NATO posed by Irans ballistic missile program and to analyze U.S. and Allies missile defense plans for Europe. This paper argues that while U.S. and NATO missile defense plans for Europe are sufficient to defend against a medium-range ballistic missile attack from Iran for the foreseeable future, defense against a potential Iranian intercontinental ballistic missile is less certain. It also finds that the U.S. PAA avoids hard-line Russian resistance and reassures U.S. allies by investing in their nations defense infrastructures. Finally, this paper presents potential future scenarios and provides recommendations for U.S. and NATO policy makers as they consider missile defense and options to deal effectively with the threat posed by Irans ballistic missile program.