Defense Energy Resilience: Lessons from Ecology

Energy security is a fundamental requirement for national security, and global energy competition threatens to make Department of Defense DoD missions increasingly vulnerable to the vagaries of energy supply. Dr. Scott Thomas and Mr. David Kerner argue that DoDs approach to energy security must accommodate a highly uncertain outlook for energy resource availability. The authors argue that while U.S. energy security needs are currently met, the shrinking gap between global supply and demand draws the world closer to a tipping point at which competition disrupts social and geopolitical normalizing forces, and conflict becomes likely. This analysis offers key insights into what a shifting energy security environment is and provides a novel theoretical framework for how the United States can best respond to it. Dr. Thomas and Mr. Kerner opine that while DoD expresses concern for trends threatening energy security, Defense planners nevertheless continue to operate as if adequate energy supplies will continue to be available, and what limited energy-related planning is done addresses only the symptoms of a systemic over-reliance on very few energy resources. To tackle this cognitive disconnect, the authors argue that DoD would be best served by devising and implementing a sustainable, resilient energy strategy that addresses current projections and adapts to evolving conditions. The authors explain two resource management concepts, drawn from the field of ecological management, that provide perspective for managing energy security resilience theory, which can benefit energy planning through the introduction of a systems perspective and the adaptive management approach, which emphasizes institutional learning and an investigational approach in refining energy programs and policy.