Chesapeake Inundation Prediction System (CIPS): A Regional Prototype for a National Problem
Abstract:
Recent Hurricanes Katrina and Isabel, among others, not only demonstrated their immense destructive power, but also revealed the obvious, crucial need for improved storm surge forecasting and information delivery to save lives and property in future storms. Current operational methods and the storm surge and inundation products do not adequately meet requirements needed by Emergency Managers EMs at local, state, and federal levels to protect and inform our citizens. The Chesapeake Bay Inundation Prediction System CIPS is being developed to improve the accuracy, reliability, and capability of flooding forecasts for tropical cyclones and non-tropical wind systems such as noreasters by modeling and visualizing expected on-land storm-surge inundation along the Chesapeake Bay and its tributaries. An initial prototype has been developed by a team of government, academic and industry partners through the Chesapeake Bay Observing System CBOS of the Mid-Atlantic Coastal Ocean Observing Regional Association MACOORA within the Integrated Ocean Observing System IOOS. For demonstration purposes, this initial prototype was developed for the tidal Potomac River in the Washington, DC metropolitan area. The preliminary information from this prototype shows great potential as a mechanism by which NOAA National Weather Service NWS Forecast Offices WFOs can provide more specific and timely forecasts of likely inundation in individual localities from significant storm surge events. This prototype system has shown the potential to indicate flooding at the street level, at time intervals of an hour or less, and with vertical resolution of one foot or less. This information will significantly improve the ability of EMs and first responders to mitigate life and property loss and improve evacuation capabilities in individual communities. This paper provides an update and expansion of the initial prototype that was presented at the Oceans 2006 MTSIEEE Conference in Boston, MA.