A Cognitive Approach to COIN: Countering Dangerous Beliefs

Counterinsurgency doctrine for targeting host nation popular support lacks a coherent underlying theoretical structure, and this void can result in unfocused and ineffective counterinsurgency planning. The dangerous beliefs model for counterinsurgency can provide a flexible framework to augment current counterinsurgency doctrine. The proposed model can serve as a guide for educating counterinsurgency forces to plan and conduct operations and understand the implications of their actions to gain popular support. While the model is not all inclusive, it does provide a way to conceptualize the underlying beliefs and perceptions that need to be targeted for effective counterinsurgency. Social engagement of the host nation population is also crucial for effective counterinsurgency, thus elements of social psychology and attitude change are integrated into the proposed model. A current and an historic case of counterinsurgency are presented to illustrate the importance of deliberately targeting underlying beliefs in the host nation population. Through proper and early targeting of these underlying beliefs and continuous reassessment of the relevant parameters, the belief targeting model can enhance operations to garner host nation support.