Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities

This National Intelligence Estimate NIE assesses the status of Irans nuclear program, and the programs outlook over the next 10 years. This time frame is more appropriate for estimating capabilities than intentions and foreign reactions, which are more difficult to estimate over a decade. In presenting the Intelligence Communitys assessment of Iranian nuclear intentions and capabilities, the NIE thoroughly reviews all available information on these questions, examines the range of reasonable scenarios consistent with this information, and describes the key factors we judge would drive or impede nuclear progress in Iran. This NIE is an extensive reexamination of the issues in the May 2005 assessment. This NIE does not assume that Iran intends to acquire nuclear weapons. Rather, it examines the intelligence to assess Irans capability and intent or lack thereof to acquire nuclear weapons, taking full account of Irans dual-use uranium fuel cycle and those nuclear activities that are at least partly civil in nature. This Estimate does assume that the strategic goals and basic structure of Irans senior leadership and government will remain similar to those that have endured since the death of Ayatollah Khomeini in 1989.