Iraq: Politics, Elections, and Benchmarks

Iraqs political system, the result of a U.S.-supported election process, is increasingly characterized by peaceful competition rather than violence, but sectarianism and ethnic and factional infighting continue to simmer. As 2009 began, there was renewed maneuvering by opponents of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki who view him as authoritarian and were perceived as conspiring to try to replace him, had his party fared poorly in the January 31, 2009 provincial elections. However, the elections appeared to strengthen Maliki and other Iraqis who believe that power should remain centralized in Baghdad, and Maliki is considered well-positioned to compete in the parliamentary elections to be held by the end of January 2010 that will select the next four-year government. The provincial elections, held in all provinces except Kirkuk and the Kurdish-controlled provinces, were relatively peaceful and there was a more diverse array of party slates than those that characterized the January 2005 provincial elections. Internal dissension within Iraq aside, the Bush Administration was optimistic that the passage of key laws in 2008, coupled with the provincial elections, would sustain recent reductions in violence. President Obama praised the orderliness and relative absence of violence of the provincial elections -- an outcome that reaffirmed the Obama Administrations belief that it can proceed with the planned reduction of the U.S. troop presence without inordinate risk to Iraqi stability. Yet, violence has since increased in some areas of Iraq, particularly those where different ethnicities and sects live in close proximity. The elections also reduced U.S. concerns about Irans influence in Iraq, in part because pro-Iranian parties -- particularly those that maintain militias armed by Iran -- fared poorly in the elections. See CRS Report RL31339, Iraq Post-Saddam Governance and Security, by Kenneth Katzman.