Russia's Demographic Trend: A Population in Steady Decline

The Russian Federation is experiencing a population decline unprecedented in modern human history. This decline is not due to war or a single epidemic, but a combination of demographic factors that are irreversible in the short term birth rates well below replacement level, abnormally high death rates, and lowered life expectancies. Exacerbating the trend in the future will be the high rate of HIVAIDS infection Russia is experiencing. This population decline will impact three factors that are inherent in Great Power status societal stability, economic strength, and military effectiveness. Russias ability to project power, even within its historical sphere of influence, may come under strain because of this population decline. Long-term population decline may force Russia to focus internally, potentially affecting its ability to remain a significant influence in the global arena. The population decline has the potential to adversely impact Russias military manpower levels, its ability to effectively police its borders, and ensure future military force capabilities sufficient to maintain its status as a Great Power.