Underlying Reasons for Success and Failure of Terrorist Attacks: Selected Case Studies

Terrorist organizations are not static entities. They learn, change their structure, adapt to countermeasures, and continuously look for means to advance their campaign. Sometimes the terrorists efforts result in successful operations sometimes they lead to failure. The purpose of this study is to identify particular factors which influence the success or failure of terrorist plots. This is the second of a two-phased effort Phase I focused on assessing the underlying reasons for the success and failure of terrorist attacks against targets within the United States and against U.S. interests abroad. Phase II, this study, focuses on attacks since the mid-1990s against targets in the United States and abroad, whether or not they directly targeted the United States. The authors look at two target categories that they believe are particularly vulnerable passenger rail and commercial aviation. Using a case study analysis, they identified eight particular terrorist attacks to analyze. The Passenger Rail attacks analyzed are as follows the Aum Shinrikyo attack on Japanese subway trains, March 20, 1995 the suicide bombing plot involving the New York City subway system, July 1997 the attacks on the London transit system, July 7, 2005 and the plan to attack the London transit system, July 21, 2005. The Commercial Aviation attacks analyzed are as follows the hijacking of Air France Flight 8969, December 24-26, 1994 the Bojinka plot in the Philippines, December 1994-January 1995 the attacks of September 11, 2001 and the plot to destroy U.S. airliners with liquid explosives, August 2006. The authors analyzed these cases based on an expansion of the set of factors used in Phase I. The results were then examined as a group to discern trends and commonalities.