Population Analysis: A Methodology for Understanding Populations in COIN Environments

This thesis outlines a methodology for use by tactical operators to better understand the dynamics of the population whose support they are attempting to gain. In turn, these operators Army soldiers, Marines, Special Forces, SEALs, Civil Affairs, etc. can use this information to more effectively develop strategy, plan operations, and conduct tactical missions. Our methodology provides a heuristic model, called the 3 x 5 P.I.G.S.P.E.E.R. Model, that can be applied in any environment and will help bridge the gap between strategic theory and tactical implementation. We believe that our methodology can be utilized to increase the operators understanding of the environment, and improve both non-kinetic and kinetic combat operations. As a counterinsurgency COIN force progresses from kinetic combat operations those attempting to gain a security foothold in a non-permissive environment to operations focused on gaining the support of the population, our methodology will aid in collecting human intelligence HUMINT. Our methodology shows that by providing security, working through locals, building trust and cooperation, and identifying opportunities to leverage the local populaces needs, COIN forces will be able to separate the populace from the insurgents, precisely target the insurgents, and empower the locals to handle their own security.