Sino-Japanese Relations: Issues for U.S. Policy

After a period of diplomatic rancor earlier this decade, Japan and China have demonstrably improved their bilateral relationship. The emerging detente includes breakthrough agreements on territorial disputes, various high-level exchanges, and reciprocal port calls by naval vessels. Over the past 10 years, China-Japan economic interdependence has grown as trade and investment flows have surged. China-Japan economic ties serve as an anchor for the overall bilateral relationship and have become the center of a robust East Asian trade and investment network. However, military strategists on each side remain wary of each others motives. Beijing is suspicious of any moves that hint at Japan developing a more assertive security posture, and Japanese defense planners note with alarm Chinas burgeoning military modernization. The durability of the recent detente could have significant implications for U.S. interests. U.S. interests in the region are generally well served by pragmatic Sino-Japanese accommodation. Equanimity in the Tokyo-Beijing relationship not only fosters stability and prosperity, but also allows the United States to avoid choosing sides on delicate issues, particularly those related to historical controversies. Multilateral efforts such as the Six-Party Talks on North Koreas nuclear weapons program can be complicated by acute bilateral tension among the participants. Despite the promise of Sino-Japanese relations remaining strong in the short-to-medium term, there are multiple potential complications and issues of concern for the United States. Among these are the dynamics of economic and diplomatic rivalry in the region, the fragility of the relationship due to historical differences and skeptical public sentiment, sensitive sovereignty issues in territorial disputes, complications surrounding the Taiwan factor in East Asian geopolitics, ongoing military incursions by Chinese vessels, and suspicions in both Tokyo and Beijing.