How Terrorist Groups End: Implications for Countering al Qa'ida

The United States cannot conduct an effective counterterrorism campaign against al Qaida or other terrorist groups without understanding how such groups end. While it is clear that U.S. policy makers will need to turn to a range of policy instruments to conduct such campaigns including careful police and intelligence work, military force, political negotiations, and economic sanctions what is less clear is how they should prioritize U.S. A recent RAND research effort sheds light on this issue by investigating how terrorist groups have ended in the past. By analyzing a comprehensive roster of terrorist groups that existed worldwide between 1968 and 2006, the authors found that most groups ended because of operations carried out by local police or intelligence agencies or because they negotiated a settlement with their governments. Military force was rarely the primary reason a terrorist group ended, and few groups within this time frame achieved victory. These findings suggest that the U.S. approach to countering al Qaida has focused far too much on the use of military force. Instead, policing and intelligence should be the backbone of U.S. efforts. This Research Brief focuses on the following topics First Systematic Examination of the End of Terrorist Groups, and Police-Oriented Counterterrorism Rather Than a War on Terrorism.