Predicting Industry Personnel Security Investigation Requirements

The 2000 Defense Authorization Bill included a mandate that the Department of Defense DoD assess personnel security investigation PSI requirements. Accurate PSI predictions are critical so that DoD can develop budgets to cover industry PSI expenses and adjudication workload. The need for this information increased with the 2005 transfer of nearly all DoD PSIs to the Office of Personnel Management OPM and its contractors. In response to the mandate, the Defense Security Service DSS established a Central Requirements Office CRO for industry personnel security clearances and instituted an annual survey of cleared facilities to obtain information about the number of PSIs the facilities expected to require in upcoming years. Because the survey responses have not been sufficiently accurate in predicting actual PSI requirements, DSS contacted the Defense Personnel Security Research Center PERSEREC for assistance in improving prediction methods. PERSEREC conducted research and developed an adjusted prediction method that could improve prediction accuracy for industry PSI requirements. Recommended changes in how annual survey data are collected should also enhance prediction accuracy. PERSEREC presented the findings, including prediction algorithms, recommendations and supporting information, to the DSS CRO May 2005. The current report documents the research goals, methods, findings, and recommendations for improving the prediction of industry PSI requirements.