Saudi Arabia: Uncertain Stability

Saudi Arabia has been one of the most stable of the U.S. allies in the Arab Middle East and a long-time collaborator in assuring oil production at reasonable prices. Saudi Arabia is also a state in transition, presided over by an ailing monarch and an extensive family network whose princes play a prominent role in the countrys political and economic life. The economy is plagued by overspending, domestic debt, and uncertain income from oil revenues. The social compact between the Al Saud rulers and the ruled is showing signs of fraying as royals compete with commoners for allocation of the countrys wealth and resources. A growing number of Saudis, encouraged perhaps by the regimes Islamist critics, are calling for greater participation and accountability in government. They are not calling for western-style democratic institutions, seeing these perhaps as too innovative and threatening for their fragile, conservative society. Leadership change, when it comes, is likely to produce little change in basic policies and threat perceptions. The ruling family is large, and its relationships in society are too extensive to be easily overturned. Most elites share the Al Sauds prejudices support for Islamist causes, suspicions of U.S. intentions, and reluctance to rely solely on the United States for its protection.