Pax Americana: America's Bid Perpetual Peace and Hegemony

This monograph analyzes Americas ability to maintain its global hegemony and perpetuate freedom from general conventional war. The theories of Geoffrey Blainey and Donald Kagan are used to explain the causes of war and the causes of peace. General Systems Theory is used to explain the systematic interactions and complexity theory is used to explain systems dynamics and instability. Finally operational art is defined using A.A. Svechin and FM 100-7 Decisive Operations. The fall of the Roman Empire and the failure of Pax Romana is reviewed to identify long term trends and draw parallels to late 20st Century America. Rome is looked at as the prototypical empire. The failure of Nazi Germany is reviewed to identify trends occurring in a modem day industrial age military empire. Nazi Germany staked its fate on a technologically and tactically superior military force to attain strategic objectives. The review attempts to determine if the United States is pursuing the same technocratic focus. Another source of German failure was ignorance of operational art given up in the pursuit of tactical hyperactivity and opportunism. The Germans were incapable of conducting successive operations in cognitive and physical terms. Is the United States exhibiting the same shortfalls in the 1990s The draw down from 1989 to 1999 is reviewed to highlight parallels between the United States, Rome, and Germany. Many disturbing trends and their second and third order consequences are revealed. Americas post cold war military strategy is critically reviewed. Cohen and Goochs model for measuring military misfortune is applied to assess the United States today. The theory of operational art is also applied to assess whether or not the United States is capable to conduct successive operations given current trends. The decline in military ability and the erosion of operational cognizance seem to point towards a downward trend in Americas ability to sustain Pax Americana.