Developing Situational Understanding: Will a Digitized Force See the 21st Century Forest Through the Trees

This monograph answers the question, Will users of the information technology systems develop the situational understanding and visualization to enhance the battlefield decision making capabilities in the Force XXI mechanized battalions and brigades This study first addresses the body of knowledge concerning both the rational and intuitive skills and abilities necessary to make a decision. A central point to the argument is that decision making skills improve with experience and practice from the novice to the expert level. The overall intent is to specifically address expert decision making strategies in complex, uncertain environments because all military decisions are made in the realm of the uncertain. As noted by our senior leadership, the twenty first century spectrum of conflict or action will be inherently ill defined, not because of poor guidance or instruction, but because of the complexity of the problems. The theory of decision making is uniquely interdisciplinary the fields of economics, statistics, mathematics, philosophy, operations research, and psychology all permeate the body of research. Decision making theory by itself may also be seen as a theory of best action, not always of rational action. The study also examines human indecision, computer aided decision making, and the development of artificial intelligence. Therefore, the answer to this problem is one that must be multi-modal in its study, design and application. The context for this question focuses on the current doctrine of battle command and decision making theory. The Great Captains, from Alexander to Napoleon, dominated their battlefields through their tactical genius, expert decision making, and good fortunes. But history is also replete with examples of military failures and misfortunes that were the result of incompetent or novice leadership.