Etiology of an Intelligence Estimate.

This study deals with improving one of the United States defense intelligence communitys most important tasks - assessments of potentially hostile nations future force capabilities. It is dedicated to the premise that intelligence can do a better job of meeting customers needs for future estimates despite being in an era of significantly restricted budgets and reduced personnel. The approach taken is somewhat unique compared to most current literature about improving intelligence. Most, like the recent report by the Commission on the Roles and Capabilities of the US Intelligence Community, dated March 1, 1996, look at block diagrams and organizational charts to figure out better functional layouts. Other views, like General Kroesans comments, take the customers perspective as their approach to improve intelligence. By contrast this study looks at the internal intelligence process that produces estimates. This approach focuses on improving the internal ways futures estimates are done. The emphasis here is directly upon improving the process and the product, not on reorganizing the institutions.