A Methodology for Evaluating the Explosive Hazards of Large Solid Rocket Motors,

A new methodology was developed for quantitatively determining the explosive hazards of launch systems that use large rocket motors containing solid propellant. The method is generally applicable to all large military, space, and commercial launch vehicles. In a failed launch, solid propellant ultimately impacts the ground, which can lead to an explosion and production of blast waves that can cause damage to people and property. The extent of the energy release severity and the chance of the event probability determine if the launch is safe. This development was sponsored by an Air Force program for a new TITAN IV vehicle to be launched at both the Eastern and Western Ranges. The goal of the study was to determine propellant ground impact patterns foot-prints for various failure modes and to determine the function, probability of exceeding various levels of blast overpressure, at several vulnerable locations surrounding the launch site. The results of the analysis are presented for a TITAN IV launch from Launch Complex 41 at the Eastern Range Cape Canaveral Air Force Station for a nominal Cassini mission. Data are included for each of ten vulnerable locations. It is shown that for all but the launch site itself, such a launch is generally safe.