Modeling for Campaign Analysis: Lessons for the Next Generation of Models. Executive Summary.

This report summarizes our experiences and observations in developing and applying models to support campaign analyses. Our goal is to provide key lessons learned to those involved in ongoing modeling efforts to move the technology of campaign modeling into the next generation. To this end, our primary purpose is to focus these efforts on improving analytic capability rather than on advancing computer science or on satisfying the ever-present demands for more and more detail in models. Our desire is to link the needs of analysis to the content and use of a campaign model, to describe some of the important new and old challenges for the next generation of models, and to discuss promising and not so promising approaches. The U.S. militarys force structure and defense strategy are increasingly affected by the use of computer models. New technologies promise to facilitate even broader use of models in the Department of Defense through advanced graphics, networked simulations, and much faster computation. For example, simulations netted with real exercises fighting against virtual and live forces in widely distributed geographic locations have already been demonstrated. The promise of lower exercise costs, of reducing or perhaps eliminating some high-cost components of weapon tests, and of using more realistic models for analysis continues to drive large investments in modeling and simulation technology and software.