Catastrophic Collapse of North Korea: Implications for the United States Military.

This monograph examines the question of what will happen on the Korean peninsula if North Korea collapses without a fight. In 1996 the Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea DPRK appears to be on the verge of disintegration due in large part to Kim II Sungs philosophy of juche or self-reliance which is nothing more than the political, economic, and social isolation of North Korea, the disastrous flooding of 1995 resulting in widespread famine, and disproportionate military spending at the expense of economic development and social welfare. The collapse of the DPRK will mark the end of the Korean War and require that the victors conduct post-conflict operations for which they are responsible. Four possible scenarios for collapse are advanced two soft landing and two hard landing. The soft landing scenarios result in gradual reunification in accordance with the Republic of Koreas three phase reunification plan. The hard landing scenarios cause tremendous suffering, increased instability, and require intervention in order to stabilize the peninsula and prevent spillover both to the north and south as well as massive migration of the norths population. In order to determine what the US should do as well as what it can do, the strategic interests, objectives, and concerns of China, Russia, Japan, the ROK, and the US are analyzed. The common theme among all is the desire to benefit economically from a stable peninsula and the Tumen River region could become the economic center of gravity for Northeast Asia and become the carrot that could attract cooperation among all the powers of the region and the US. Finally, the monograph concludes by presenting the four mission essential tasks which must be accomplished following DPRK collapse 1 establishment of security and stability 2 humanitarian relief operations 3 security of nuclear research, pro