Recognition-Primed Decision Strategies.

We describe activities conducted during a 3-year basic research contract that has its goal extension and examination of a Recognition-Primed Decision RPD model of decision making. The RPD model describes a decision strategy commonly employed by proficient personnel called upon to make decisions in operational settings by high risk, time constraints, and ambiguous or incomplete information. Work was organized around three areas of interest 1 evaluation of the relative strengths and weaknesses of the RPD strategy, 2 examination of the nature of simulation assessment in C2 environments, and 3 exploration of techniques for supporting decision making in operational environments that are consistent with the RPD framework. The report contains descriptions of nine studies seven empirical, two analytical conducted to examine these issues. One important outcome of the research has been to advance understanding of the role of mental simulation in decision making. We have developed a detailed mode of mental simulation, including an account of how mental simulation serves as a source of power for a variety of cognitive functions. Work performed under this contract has helped to establish naturalistic decision making as an important and unique perspective.