Incident at Mischief Reef: Implications for the Philippines, China, and the United States.

The February 1995 Chinese occupation of the Philippine-claimed Mischief Reef in the South China Sea raised tensions throughout the region and heightened concern throughout much of the industrializedmaritime world. Instability or armed conflict in this key area, particularly involving the Republic of the Philippines, could affect important, if not vital, U.S. security and economic interests. This paper examines the implications of the Spratly Island Issue on U.S. interests in the South China Sea, emphasizing the U.S. bilateral treaty relationship with the Philippines. After briefly reviewing the historical background and the various players probable intentions, several possible approaches are discussed that could reduce the likelihood of conflict and instability. The author believes the best approach to addressing near-term economic concerns and solving long-term sovereignty issues is through the ASEAN Regional Forum ARF. As a member of the ARF, the U.S. must make it clear to China that we will protect our vital interests regarding freedom of the seas, despite our strong desire for economic and political engagement. Without speculating on hypothetical situations, the U.S. intent is to honor its treaty obligations.